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03 Noiembrie 2009 / 22:02

Lectia anilor `90

O privire spre trecut, nu strica. Invatamintele anilor `90 pot aduce solutii pentru actuala criza.


Romania a avut, in anii `90, propria criza economica. Fara anvergura regionala, criza romanesca a fost resimtita cat se poate de local.

Din punct de vedere temporar, criza a durat intre anii 1990 si 1999, si, chiar daca in anumite perioade din acest interval de timp statistica nu a inregistrat termenii de recesiune, in ceea ce priveste nivelul de trai si starea economiei, putem vorbi, fara indoiala, de o criza.

Absenta reformelor, hiperinflatia, blocajul financiar, nivelul ridicat al stocurilor de produse, falimentele bancare, toate au fost elementele care au caracterizat criza economiei romanesti.

De fapt, economia s-a confruntat cu doua probleme majore: prima, tranzitia spre economia de piata, cu tot ceea ce a presupus acest proces: ajustari legislative, schimbari ale pietelor de desfacere a marfurilor, scaderea puterii de cumparare pe piata interna si cedarea unor prerogative ale statului in economie.

A doua, formarea “noii clase de bogati ai noii economii”, clasa care a inceput sa-si defineasca si sa cucereasca teritoriul economic pe care sa-l domine.

“Noii bogati” au fost atat companii romanesti sau straine, cat si investitori autohtoni sau externi.

Dupa zece ani de criza (1990-1999), au urmat noua ani de crestere economica (2000-2008), ani in care Romania a avut rate impresionante de crestere, inflatia a cunoscut o traiectorie descendenta, investitiile straine au ajuns la niveluri ridicate (in anii `90, Romania a ratat primul val al investitiilor straine care au venit din Vest catre Estul Europei), atrase atat de cresterea ritmului privatizarii companiilor de stat, cat si de imbunatatirea mediului de afaceri, fapt care a adus si investitii greenfield.

Investitorii straini au venit cu bani, tehnologie, know-how si propriile piete de desfacere. Astfel, s-a dezvoltat sistemul financiar (banci si asigurari), in multe ramuri ale economiei statul a disparut aproape complet, Romania a obtinut statutul de economie functionala de piata, a acces in Uniunea Europeana si a devenit membru NATO. La nivelul populatiei, cresterea economica a inceput sa-si arate roadele.

Cresterea din statistica s-a simtit si in buzunarele populatiei, dupa cativa ani de la debut. Salariile au crescut, piata fortei de munca s-a flexibilizat prin accesul muncitorilor romani, oficial sau neoficial, in statele UE, iar creditul pentru populatie (practic inexistent in anii `90) a atins cote apropiate de nivelul tarilor europene.

Suntem, astazi, din nou, in plina criza. O criza care vine de data aceasta din afara Romaniei, din economia mondiala, dar care va afecta economia noastra pe o perioada mai lunga chiar decat tarile din care a plecat criza.

Ar mai trebui spus un lucru: chiar daca criza are cauze externe, ea isi transfera efectele, dar, partial, si cauzele in economia interna. In sensul ca fiecare economie lupta, acum, sa gaseasca propriile solutii de iesire mai rapida din criza.

Exista cel putin trei asemanari intre criza anilor `90 si cea de astazi: 1) pierderea sau contractia pietelor de desfacere; 2) nevoia de reducere a cheltuielilor bugetare si calitatea managementului realizat de stat la companiile pe care inca le mai detine; 3) scaderea nivelului de trai al populatiei.

Si atunci, ca si acum, companiile romanesti s-au confruntat si se confrunta cu o scadere accentuata a cifrei de afaceri din cauza pierderii, chiar si partiale, a pietei externe si a scaderii pietei interne. Motivele sunt diferite.

Imediat dupa anul 1989, companiile romanesti, exclusiv cu capital de stat, erau obisnuite sa aiba comenzi comerciale obtinute din aranjamente politice, in special din tarile Tratatului de la Varsovia, din unele state arabe si africane.

Dizolvarea pactului de la Varsovia a dus si la anularea contractelor economice. Obiectivul companiilor cu capital de stat ar fi trebuit sa fie prelungirea vechilor contracte si gasirea de noi piete. Firmele de stat au ratat aceasta tinta.

Privatizarea comertului exterior a lasat companiile de stat fara mana lor dreapta: marketingul si contractele de export. Contracte care au fost preluate de intermediarii exportului. Companiilor le-a fost amputat bratul care aducea banii si nu si-au mai putut reveni.

Fara piata externa, cu o scadere drastica a comenzilor interne care s-a suprapus cu blocajul financiar, firmele de stat au devenit o prada sigura a economiei de piata. Unele s-au privatizat pe bani putini, altele au dat faliment.

Astazi, criza a redus drastic exporturile romanesti. Situatia este, din acest punct de vedere, asemanatoare cu cea din anii `90. Si acum, ca si atunci, se pune problema reorientarii produselor romanesti catre alte piete externe.

Diferenta este insa ca, astazi, o buna parte din companiile romanesti apartin investitorilor straini, din care o mare parte sunt europeni. Ei sunt primii interesati sa gaseasca noi piete sau sa le diversifice pe cele existente, incluzand in planurile lor si companiile romanesti.

In anul 2000, primul din sirul de ani de crestere economica, motorul principal a fost exportul. Si astazi, exportul poate fi un motor al redresarii economice, dar, din pacate, un motor care trebuie turat de partenerii nostri occidentali, acolo unde se duc aproape trei sferturi din exporturile economiei romanesti.

Pentru a decola din nou, economia romaneasca are nevoie, insa, de doua motoare: atat cel extern, cat si cel intern.

Or, pe plan intern situatia este complicata. Si atunci, si acum, se aflau in dezbatere problemele reducerii cheltuielilor bugetare. Temele predilecte ale anilor `90 erau legate de subventiile bugetare acordate companiilor cu capital de stat si de nivelul arieratelor pe care aceste firme le induc in economie. In contrapartida, se dezbatea mult rolul social al acestor companii.

Din pacate, astazi, dupa mai bine de zece ani, temele nu s-au schimbat. Tot subventii, tot datorii bugetare si tot un numar de angajati prea numeros. Temele anilor `90 sunt confirmate, in aceste zile, chiar de discutiile purtate cu Fondul Monetar International.

Desigur, este putin probabil ca in anul 2010 sa se puna problema inchiderii companiilor de stat subventionate (asa cum a fost cazul in anii `96), dar tema eficientizarii acestor intreprinderi va fi pe agenda guvernului macar pentru faptul ca este inscrisa si in acordul cu FMI.

In anul 2009, un subiect mai sensibil chiar decat companiile cu capital de stat este cel al aparatului de stat. Exista un numar impresionant de angajati in administratia publica si in cea locala, care fac parte dintr-un aparat care s-a umflat in ultimii patru ani atat numeric, cat si din punctul de vedere al salariilor.

Astfel, s-a ajuns ca salariile din sectorul de stat sa fie mai mari decat din cel privat. De asemenea, administratiile locale traiesc din transferuri de la bugetul de stat, iar bugetul asigurarilor sociale are un deficit tot mai accentuat.

Daca luam aminte la experienta anilor `90 vom intelege ca economia nu va  putea demara fara o restructurare a cheltuielilor bugetare. Economia romaneasca n-a scapat nici in anii `90 de ajustari ale cheltuielilor publice si, probabil, ca nu va scapa nici acum.

Chiar daca in anii `90 s-au facut lent, reformele s-au facut. Politicienii de atunci s-au ferit de reforme rapide in speranta ca vor micsora costurile sociale si ca nu vor plati factura la nivel politic. In cele din urma insa, reformele s-au facut, in special in anii 1996-2000, costurile politice au fost asumate, iar economia a fost gata de crestere.

Restructurarea cheltuielilor publice (prin privatizarea sau inchiderea companiilor de stat si prin reducerea subventiilor bugetare) a fost acompaniata de masuri de stimulare a cresterii economice (masuri de incurajare a exporturilor si o legislatie incurajatoare pentru investitorii care nu au ezitat sa vina in Romania).

Concluzia este aceea ca astazi criza nu va putea fi depasita fara insanatosirea cheltuielilor bugetare si fara cresterea afacerilor companiilor romanesti.

Veniturile firmelor romanesti depind de cresterea exporturilor, de redresarea pietei interne (prin reluarea creditarii, pe termen scurt si cresterea economica, pe termen mediu) si de nivelul investitiilor publice.

Modelul anilor `90 arata ca este putin probabil ca Romania sa poata evita o reducere a cheltuielilor bugetare. Reducerea poate fi amanata, dar nu anulata.

Exista insa doua solutii-minune pentru a aduce peste noapte bani mai multi la buget si a ne permite o amanare pe termen lung a reducerilor bugetare. Ele tin de exploatarea rapida a zacamintelor de titei si gaze naturale din Marea Neagra si de micsorarea economiei negre si a evaziunii fiscale care ajung la valori importante din produsul intern brut al tarii.

Sunt, cum spuneam, solutii-minune. Am vorbit despre asemanarile economiei romanesti din anii `90 si de astazi.

Pe scurt, si despre diferente. Cele mai importante tin de Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) si de sistemul financiar. Astazi, BNR are o rezerva valutara consistenta, care ii permite sa apere la nevoie cursul de schimb valutar si are ca tinta reducerea inflatiei.

Sistemul financiar a aratat in anii 2004-2008 ca poate credita en gros economia, adica atat companiile, cat si persoanele fizice. Reluarea solida a creditarii economiei reale se va face doar dupa ce se va mai tempera aspiratorul de bani care este Ministerul Finantelor, aspirator care absoarbe o buna parte din lichiditatea pietei.

Dar, probabil, diferenta importanta dintre anii 2004-2008 si momentul actualei crize este ca, in anii trecuti, companiile si romanii au trait pe datorie si, in felul acesta, au crescut consumul si deficitul de balanta comerciala, in vreme ce astazi statul traieste pe datorie, iar cu banii luati imprumut plateste salariile bugetarilor si pensiile. QED.

Analiza de Constantin Rudnitchi

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  • malaxa04/11/2009 11:47

    Bravo d-le Rudnitchi, o analiza f buna. Ce crezi ca se va intampla cu cursul valutar la anul?

  • aleks mici05/11/2009 10:44

    Lectia jafului comunistilor si securistilor la drumul mare, da, asta se potriveste Romaniei! Sau te-ai referit in eufemisme ! Oricum a numii lectie o asemenea catastrofa mi se pare cel putin riscant din toate punctele de vedere. Daca nu penibil si pervers. Da ala a fost u jaf banditesc de cea ma joasa speta, dar de natura amatoristica. Sunt de acrod , tentativa dv de teoretizare este "frumoasa", dar uita din pacate esentialul, jaful in numele zisei "economii de piata". Acum urmeaza jaful profesionist de inalta clasa asa cum se intimpla in USA( Vezi Bancile si Wall Street) si prin alte parti din lume. In rest te contrazici la fiecare doua fraze, daca nu si mai des. Oricum Romania a "trait iluzia"capitalismului ca un mos Craciun cam multi ani ! In primul rind capitalismul nu este Mos Craciun, ci mai mult ca sigur anti-teza lui, dar iluzia a fost posibila numai si numai acelor bani care au venit pe degeaba de la omul ce munceste din greu in West( adica bani EU) si mai ales cei din munca "capsunarilor"si a tiganilor, care au fost buni de cel putin 15 miliarde pe ani, bani curati si fara hangarale si constructii financiare ciudate si perverse adusi in tara . Restula fost fantasmagoria criminala care a dus la criza mondiala actuala, criza care va rog sa nu o mai personoficati si descrie ca ceva cazut cu horzobul din cer, ci spunti clar si cinstit a fost bine organizata si codusa chiar de acei corifei ai raului din acest capitalism modern si de zisa globalizare. Mai terminati cu miturile penibile si povesti de adormit copiii: vinovati sunt acolo si le este foarte bine si acum pregatesc a doua mare crapelnita si jaf international ! Restul nu sunt decit aiureli si sofisticarii din cel mai aberant scenariu al jafului mondial.

  • aleks mici05/11/2009 11:00

    D-le Rudnitki, inainte de a mai scrie teorii ciudate, te rog sa mai citesti si ce se intimpla in realitate in lume si USA, cauza cauzelor ce a generat premeditat acest debaclu mondial David Epstein, a political science professor at Columbia University in New York talking about none other than finance and the economy. It is quite startling that a professor of political science would have a better grasp on economic matters than nearly every professor of economics. David makes some good points: 1. Housing prices are going to continue down for the next year. 2. We are "absolutely" creating a financial bubble in the stock market. 3. Absent the $24 trillion of government money, the markets would not be where they are (meaning this rally has been totally bought and is not sustainable. It's a bubble. What happens when Uncle Sam has his credit card taken away from him and no longer has money available to support the market?) 4. The alleged reason to bail out the big banks was to "save" the economy. The stated idea was to give the big banks taxpayer money so that they could continue to lend. That is not happening. The big banks are keeping the money to speculate with, and not lending it. 5. "We're not being saved" which means the economy is not "recovering." 6. The big banks are so under-capitalized that they just suck in money and it never comes back out. (What happens when Uncle Sam has his credit card taken away from him and he can no longer give these big banks trillions and trillions of dollars?) 7. Money is going to "zombie banks" and as a result capital is depriving real businesses who need it and could indeed fuel a genuine economic recovery. 8. Small investors and small businesses are "being stolen from." It's short, but it's a pretty good video. It makes some of the points that I have been making. Can these things continue? Not for much longer. You see, uncle Sam is already well into the process of losing his borrowing ability. Foreigners are already shunning U.S. debt offerings. They are actively involved in creating alternatives to the U.S. Dollar. As a result, the Fed is creating money out of thin air to fill the shortfall. This is highly destructive behavior. The more money that the Fed creates out of thin air, the more it dilutes the value of the Dollar, and the more that happens, the faster foreign countries work to get rid of the U.S. Dollar. It's a no-win situation. A U.S. Dollar crisis is coming. And you won't have to wait long for it. Jon Stewart starts out by giving a glowing review of Dr. Paul's book "End The Fed." He then follows up with the statement, "And you call yourself a Congressman," which evokes much laughter from the audience. I feel that comment should evoke weeping or outright crying rather than laughter. It's a very sad commentary on the quality of Congress. Congressmen and women are expected to be thoughtless. They are expected to be bought and paid for. They are expected to represent their corporate donors (a better word would be masters) instead of the people who voted them into office. Why is it funny that one Congressman who actually takes the time to think through issues of money, freedom, corruption, and fraud, and who actually speaks out on behalf of the public's best interest is viewed as an outsider and doesn't fit the stereotype of the typical Congressperson? In short, Congress is supposed to be full of honorable statesmen (and women) that do what is in the best interest of the country, not full of full of wretched scoundrels who pillage from the public for personal gain for themselves and their well-connected friends. Dr. Paul tells it like it is when he says, "My biggest concern is personal liberty." Sadly, the biggest concern of most in Congress is to remove personal liberty, not increase it. Dr. Paul also says, "They tax us a lot, but that's not enough. They borrow a lot, but that's not enough. Then there's another method, it's called the Fed... and they just print the money when they need it. You know, you and I would go to jail if we did that." So tell me: Why can a private corporation (The Federal Reserve) print money for their own benefit, without any audit ever, and not only get away with it, but be praised by the media for doing so? The answer lies in one of the more stinging statements made by Dr. Paul: "It's hard to enforce fraud laws when the government participates in fraud." Sad, but true. interview with Steve Meyers. Steve makes many of the same points that I've been making. Some of the statements he makes are: "You cannot have a recovery with the consumer flat on his back and the banking system run amok." "When this rally is over, it's going to be like a vacuum." "I see a very, very sharp decline for the next couple weeks." "When we get the real currency event, which is a currency crisis, we're probably going to skip inflation and go right to hyperinflation." "The government is the only one buying the long end of the Treasury market, and as soon as they end that program, it's going to be a collapse." "I still feel there is no way out of this mess." Here's why Steve's forecast sounds so much like my own: we are both looking at real-world data, not the hope and hype promoted by the media. The false facade is beginning to crumble. Dylan Ratigan of MSNBC, who was formerly with CNBC. Dylan doesn't seem interested in promoting fairly tales, which many assume is the reason he was helped out of CNBC. He seems much more interested in telling it like it is. I'll give him a gold star for that. Today he talks about Goldman Sachs, and how they have managed to make billions in profits on the backs of U.S. taxpayers. I disagree with him that there is a genuine recovery. Yes, stock prices have recovered, but stock prices are not the same as the economy. Nevertheless, this is a decent presentation of the basic facts surrounding Goldman. Just another example of crony capitalism at work. In the long run, crony capitalism will bring down any country. Greed cannot be satiated. The greedy will keep taking more and more of the economic pie until there is not enough left for the functioning of the genuine economy. One only has to study history to find numerous examples. Unfortunately, we are at the famed "long run" right now. Crony capitalism has been steadily eroding our economic system for years and years. The world is totally disgusted with Wall Street's behavior and is going to turn their backs on our Dollar. What else would you expect? Watch today's video and see if it doesn't disgust you as well. You'll likely feel like Dylan does: how can this be stopped. unfortunately, I disagree with Dylan that the problem can be corrected. The corruption is too entrenched. The guilty have too much power. I think we've passed the point of no return. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Robert starts out by saying that he believes the stock market has and is being manipulated. I explained in last night's webinar that our financial leaders are trying to manage the economy through public expectations and that one of the main tools in doing so is the stock market. Robert uses the word "manipulation" versus my description of "managed." Chalk the difference up to semantics. Robert also says that China, Russia, and Brazil have no confidence in the U.S. Dollar right now. I agree completely, and would add that many, many more countries could and should be added to that list. Robert then shoots holes in the traditional financial advice of "save money, and invest in a well-diversified portfolio of mutual funds." he then correctly points out, "That didn't protect them from anything." Exactly. There is an old saying, "Never ask your barber if you need a haircut." Along those lines I think it should be obvious never take the financial "advice" of slick Wall Street salesmen. Following their advice won't protect you from anything. It will simply enrich them at your expense. when asked about the future of the economy, Robert believes that we have two choices. I agree up to that point, but his two choices are different than my two choices. He believes we either go into a depression, or we go into hyperinflation. My tow choices are a deflationary depression, or a hyperinflationary depression. I see us in a depression either way. It is clear to me that an economic depression cannot be avoided. It is simply a matter of choosing the flavor of depression. Robert does say that "it really going to get tough for everybody." He doesn't see boom times ahead. Robert talks about the "401k Ponzi scheme." He ends the interview by talking about other countries refusing to accept the U.S. Dollar. That is currently happening. Right now that process is orderly. At some point, the process will become disorderly. Time is running short. Today's video features two members of the House Financial Services Committee, Congressman Brad Sherman and Congressman Scott Garrett. While one is a Democrat and one is a republican, they both are in agreement that the financial regulation bill proposed by Geithner is outrageous. Both men have awful things to say about Geithner's plan. Brad calls it "TARP on steroids; unlimited, permanent bailout authority vested in the executive branch of government." Brad continues, "If you only listen to the Secretary, and you don't read his 253 page proposal, you may come away with the wrong information." That's too polite. Geithner is a liar. His words are completely different than his actions. Brad continues, "The fact is section 1109 allows the executive branch to loan unlimited amounts of money to any solvent financial institution, while 1604 allows them to make unlimited investments in any insolvent financial institution." That's what Dylan pointed out yesterday. Has the country gone insane? Do we really want to give the Treasury Department the power to take money from us taxpayers in unlimited amounts and hand it over to any financial institution of its choosing, solvent or insolvent? We must be insane if we are even considering such an atrocity. Congressman Garrett adds, "What we need to do is make sure we end this idea of an ability for bailouts." I couldn't agree more! Why in the world should the taxpayer (that's you and me) have to hand over our hard-earned money so that some fat cat, politically connected group of multi-millionaire bankers can keep their 7 figure jobs after recklessly running their companies to the point of bankruptcy? If you or I fail, nobody will be there to bail us out. Why should we have to turn over our money to these people? Sadly, at the end of the video, Congressman Sherman is asked if the bill will pass. He replies, "All of Wall Street and the administration is for it; don't bet against it." Oh boy. Wall Street is about to be given a license to create unlimited disasters without having to pay for them. Instead, you and I will have to pay for their mess. Do you think the license will be used? My prediction: disasters will be created. Count on it. Today's video features Dylan Ratigan of MSNBC for the second time this week. Today, Dylan is interviewing Rep. Maurice Hinchey. Mr. Hinchey starts out with a bang by stating, "The manipulation of this whole investment practice has been going on now for years." Wow. A congressman telling it like it is. That's a refreshing change. Maurice continues, "The gross manipulation of those investments, which has cost huge amounts of money to large numbers of people, and no one apparently who is responsible for that is interested in having anything changed." Tragically, he is correct. The thieves in $5,000 suits want to be able to continue to steal hundreds of billions of dollars with complete immunity. Congressman Hinchey continues, "We haven't begun to do the kinds of things that are necessary to straighten this mess out, and to bring back some oversight and supervision that is going to restrict people from engaging in con jobs and the manipulation of investment practices that are going to be disastrous." An even bigger wow. If we prevent Wall Street from engaging in con jobs, what is left for them to do? Congressman Hinchey uses the word manipulation repeatedly. Dylan talks repeatedly about Wall Street doing things in secret. Con jobs, manipulation, secrecy & disaster. When will it end? My warning is this: Get ready for Financial Crisis Round 2. The fraud continues. Toxic assets have not gone away. The license to steal is in the process of being expanded. Nearly every forecast that I made earlier this year is unfolding daily in the mainstream financial news: increased foreclosure rates, commercial real estate sinking rapidly, unemployment rising, and other countries seeking alternatives to the U.S. Dollar. This financial disaster is not over -- the financial system remains broken, insolvent, and full of corruption -- and to date nothing in our financial system has been genuinely fixed, only covered up so that the corruption can continue and further enrich the guilty. Our leaders are not taking proper corrective action, but simply lining the pockets of themselves and their friends while digging a deeper economic hole for the rest of the country. Round 2 of this crisis is going to be a much, much more severe calamity than what we've seen so far. Please, please take action to prepare now, while there is still time to act. Very, very, very soon, that time will have run out. Americans simply NEED to know about the con and corruption that is going on within the financial system, and about the crisis that is about to befall them. Americans also need to know that when Round 2 hits, the solution is not to give the wealthy money men and their cronies trillions more in bailout money courtesy of every hard-working American. We should not be giving the very same people who caused this crisis more money and power. We should prosecute white collar crime, not reward it! The backlash against Wall Street by foreign governments is going to cause a U.S. Dollar crisis which in turn will cause a great deal of financial pain to every unprepared American. At StocksOnAlert.com, I'm not only dedicated to keeping you informed about all the behind-the-scenes details of this unfolding financial disaster, but to help you successfully navigate through it by providing accurate and objective financial information -- so that you and your loved ones will emerge on the other side of the crisis with much more wealth than you have today. Unfortunately, most gullible Americans will be driven to the poor house by the false signals and broken actions of our broken government. In the meantime, insiders and their cronies who are well-connected are running off with trillions of dollars, courtesy of the soon-to-be broke U.S. Taxpayer.

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Constantin Rudnitchi

Constantin Rudnitchi
  • In perioada 1990-1992 Constantin Rudnitchi a fost redactor la revista Cuvantul iar pana in 1998 la Capital. Revine la Curentul pentru un an pe pozitia de sef de sectie iar in perioada 1999-2004 va fi redactor sef-adjunct la revista Capital. In perioada 2004-2007 a lucrat pentru revista Bilant de pe pozitia de redactor sef.
  • A colaborat cu televiziunile Realitatea TV, N24, TVR1, TVR2, Monney Channel, dar si cu radiouri Romania Actualitati, BBC si Europa FM.
  • Constantin Rudnitchi este binecunoscut si pentru editorialele sale din revistele Dilema Veche, 22, Cuvantul.
  • A predat la Centrul pentru Jurnalism Independent un curs de Jurnalism economic.
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