Daca, in mod evident, reuniuni precum aceea a G 20 - grupul celor mai puternice economii ale lumii - nu pot decat creiona schimbari care rezulta din noua configuratie de la masa puterii mondiale si care ar urma sa se coaguleze in timp, se astepta totusi ca reuniunea G 20 de la Pittsburgh (SUA) sa dea nastere macar unui soricel in carne si oase intr-un domeniu tangibil: cel financiar.
Existau cel putin trei argumente. Primul: dezordinea si speculatiile scapate de sub orice control din domeniul financiar generasera criza care a cuprins intreaga lume si a produs atata suferinta.
Al doilea: cel putin unii dintre membrii G 20, reprezentanti ai vechii puteri mondiale, in frunte cu Germania si Franta si, prin implicatie, Uniunea Europeana, constientizand pericolele din sistemul financiar, aveau cereri articulate privind reglementari in domeniu, unii dintre ei, precum Franta, reclamand masuri concrete in lipsa carora amenintau sa se retraga de la reuniune.
Al treilea: se miza pe faptul ca nou-venitii la masa puterii mondiale (indeosebi grupul BRIC: Brazilia, Rusia, India, China) - cei pentru care a ajuns de fapt sa se intruneasca G 20, in locul fostului G 7 al tarilor industrializate occidentale - isi vor face in mod concret simtita prezenta sustinand Europa Occidentala in demersul ei, caci aceste tari nu pot fi decat interesate in reglementari in sistemul financiar.
In lipsa acestor reglementari, adica in cazul prelungirii situatiei de pana acum, nu vor avea decat de pierdut, sistemul financiar transnational, dominat de americani si britanici, urmand a continua sa le absoarba seva economica si implicit sa le intarzie si chiar sa le submineze expansiunea si afirmarea.
Socoteala din targ nu s-a potrivit insa cu cea de acasa. Probabil, in urma unor mari presiuni americane, cuvintele frumoase au putut constitui un compromis, din care sistemul financiar se alege cu ceea ce este mai important: va putea sa zburde in continuare, singura opreliste urmand a-i fi presiunea opiniei publice.
Promisiunile privind masuri concrete au luat locul unor masuri concrete efective, inchizand totusi gura vest-europenilor. Urmeaza a se vedea daca acestia, in cadrul Uniunii Europene, se vor distanta realmente de America si isi vor construi, dupa cum se lauda, propriul mecanism de supraveghere a sistemului financiar.
Marea Britanie ramane un semn de intrebare, caci nu pare dispusa a se desprinde de americani, alaturi de care ar dori sa joace in continuare, intrucat City-ul londonez este din aceeasi plamadeala cu Wall Street-ul new-yorkez.
Nou-venitii la masa puterii mondiale, aflati in plin proces de negociere a raporturilor, nu numai economice, dar si politice cu SUA, n-au indraznit de fapt sa joace ferm cartea vest-europeana.
In mod practic, liderii G 20 isi asuma obligatia sa dezvolte reguli agreate la nivel international care sa imbunatateasca calitatea si cantitatea capitalului bancar si care sa descurajeze indatorarea excesiva.
Aceste reguli ar urma sa prevada ca bancile ar trebui sa fie mai bine capitalizate si mai strict reglementate, iar bonusurile bancherilor sa fie date inapoi in caz de performante slabe, dar aceste reguli abia ar urma sa fie elaborate intr-un an si jumatate de aici incolo.
Perioada in care se pot intampla multe! Si, probabil, tocmai pe acest lucru mizeaza cei ce urmaresc tergiversarea, in frunte cu americanii. Desi, daca ar fi sa-i dai ascultare d-lui Obama, ar urma sa te astepti ca numai maine ar mai trece pana la derizabilele reglementari.
Dar, probabil, nu d-l Obama face jocurile in America, ci in continuare cei de pe Wall Street. Esenta pozitiei americane deriva nemijlocit din faptul ca, in timp ce ocupa doar 5% din forta de munca si produce 10% din PIB-ul american, sistemul financiar da 40% din totalul profiturilor, grosul venind din vlaguirea economiilor altor tari.
Nu se renunta usor la asa ceva! Deja bancile din SUA se grabesc sa-si recastige terenul pierdut pentru a preintampina eventuale masuri de reglementare, care la un moment dat pareau a plana prin aer.
Strangand rapid sume imense din injectiile monetare facute de guvernul american pentru aprovizionarea pietei cu lichiditati spre combaterea crizei - dar nici prin gand trecandu-le sa reia cumva creditarea economiei reale -, bancile apasa puternic pedala acceleratiei cu rambursarea banilor primiti de la guvern, totul spre a putea pretinde sa fie degrevate de servitutile implicate de primirea acestor bani, si, in esenta, spre a putea sa se intoarca la raiul lipsei de reguli si reglementari de dinaintea crizei.
Analiza de Ilie Serbanescu
Dupa cum spunea titlul unei analize citite tot pe acest sait: Yes, we can't.
regulile economice le fac oamenii de specialitate numai in est toata lumea se pricepe la orice
Steve Liesman, the only one of the three who works for CNBC, is constantly trying to paint a very rosy picture of the economy and the financial system. That's what he always does. His view is that there are never any problems. It's all good. That might be true for Wall Street; when they commit financial crimes, the SEC refuses to investigate. No problem there. When they run out of money, the Fed or the Treasury give them as much as they need. No problem there. I guess Steve Liesman's view is correct, if you limit his view to just Wall Street. Believe or not, there is an entire world outside of Wall Street, and that world is suffering with many financial problems. In Steve's world, there are no problems. In the real world, there are gigantic problems. My position has been all along that simply denying problems exist will not make those problems go away. Problems in the economy and the financial system need to be addressed and solved, not hidden and ignored. Those problems are growing and will soon overwhelm our economic system. All the while, our leaders are ignoring them. I'm not. My warning is this: Get ready for Financial Crisis Round 2. The fraud continues. Toxic assets have not gone away. Nearly every forecast that I made earlier this year is unfolding daily in the mainstream financial news: increased foreclosure rates, commercial real estate sinking rapidly, unemployment rising, and other countries seeking alternatives to the U.S. Dollar. This financial disaster is not over -- the financial system remains broken, insolvent, and full of corruption -- and to date nothing in our financial system has been genuinely fixed, only covered up so that the corruption can continue and further enrich the guilty. Our leaders are not taking proper corrective action, but simply lining the pockets of themselves and their friends while digging a deeper economic hole for the rest of the country. Round 2 of this crisis is going to be a much, much more severe calamity than what we've seen so far. Please, please take action to prepare now, while there is still time to act. Very, very, very soon, that time will have run out. Americans simply NEED to know about the con and corruption that is going on within the financial system, and about the crisis that is about to befall them. Americans also need to know that when Round 2 hits, the solution is not to give the wealthy money men and their cronies trillions more in bailout money courtesy of every hard-working American. We should not be giving the very same people who caused this crisis more money and power. We should prosecute white collar crime, not reward it! The backlash against Wall Street by foreign governments is going to cause a U.S. Dollar crisis which in turn will cause a great deal of financial pain to every unprepared American. At StocksOnAlert.com, I'm not only dedicated to keeping you informed about all the behind-the-scenes details of this unfolding financial disaster, but to help you successfully navigate through it by providing accurate and objective financial information -- so that you and your loved ones will emerge on the other side of the crisis with much more wealth than you have today. Unfortunately, most gullible Americans will be driven to the poor house by the false signals and broken actions of our broken government. In the meantime, insiders and their cronies who are well-connected are running off with trillions of dollars, courtesy of the soon-to-be broke U.S. Taxpayer. Of course, I will be continuing to sound the alarm every step of the way.
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King think that banks that are considered â??too big to failâ?? should be broken up. The House Financial Services Committee is drafting a bill that will make banks pay for other banksâ?? bankruptcies. Others have suggested reviving the Glass-Steagall Act â?? the 1933 legislation that forced financial institutions to separate their commercial and investment banking businesses. Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999. Itâ??s enough to make your head spin. And donâ??t think that our elected â??leadersâ?? arenâ??t feeling just as overwhelmed. At the end of the day, however, there has to be a solution to the banking mess. Doesnâ??t there? Leaving everything as it is isnâ??t an option, or at least it is a very bad option. In the short term, it may have been necessary to bail out all the major banks and investment banks â?? save for the unfortunate Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ). In the long run, this has established a presumption that any financial institution that is too complicated for politicians to figure out â?? and thatâ??s big enough to make them afraid of losing it â?? can pretty well do what it likes. And that includes paying its senior managers grossly excessive bonuses within a year of receiving a state bailout â?? can anyone say Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS)? This also gives these particular banks an unfair advantage in funding â?? and in accessing large pools of capital. The past year has demonstrated all too well that these particular institutions are only too happy to use this advantage to squeeze their smaller competitors out of the market. On the other hand, I donâ??t think that bringing back Glass-Steagall â?? as it was â?? will do the job properly. Todayâ??s investment banks just arenâ??t the same as they were in 1935. In fact, theyâ??re even more sophisticated today than they were as recently as 1985. Trading dominates investment-banking activities more than ever before. And thatâ??s resulted in a way it never used to, and they have an impossibly tangled network of obligations to counterparties on interest rate swaps, currency swaps and now the inevitable credit default swaps (CDS). That last derivative security, in particular, makes it impossible to imagine an investment bank with a large portfolio surviving anything but the mildest downturn. The reason: In a real recession, an investment bank will have to post collateral on all of its credit-default-swap obligations, which increase in value once money gets tight. Thus, just when it is most difficult to attract funding, investment banks with large CDS portfolios are subject to a â??giant sucking sound,â?? as all their funds are drained away to satisfy counterparty claims on CDS portfolios. But there are three things we can do in response: Ban credit default swaps, initiate a transaction tax and boosting capital standards. Letâ??s consider all three. Three Moves to Make Iâ??ve been warning investors about the dangers of credit default swaps since very early in 2008, months before the problems surfaced. There actually are several reasons to ban credit default swaps, except possibly for the rare cases in which the credit-default-swap seller actually owns enough of the credit in question to cover the CDS. Letâ??s consider the top three: First, they are destabilizing to the market, because they zoom up in value in tight markets, draining their sellers of funding. Second, they encourage speculation on bankruptcy â?? they are like short selling on steroids, because the potential profit from a CDS is a large multiple of its cost. And third, credit default swaps mess up bankruptcy negotiations; because some creditors will be a â??phantom,â?? either covered by the swaps, or actually â??shortâ?? the credit, meaning they have an incentive to push the firm into bankruptcy. The fact that Congress â?? a year after the collapse of American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) â?? still has not banned the use of credit default swaps is a tribute to the power of the investment-banking lobby. (Note to U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-MA, House Banking Committee Chairman: Ban credit default swaps now! Itâ??sâ??s the one thing you can do to make up for the damage you did in shielding Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) during the housing bubble.) There is another thing that we can do as well as banning CDS, and that is to impose a Tobin tax on trading, of some small percentage of each transaction. Much trading â?? especially short-term trading â?? is more or less just rent-seeking, making money on insider knowledge of the fund flows in the market. When you hear that the major investment houses have electronic-stock-trading computers set up inside the stock exchange building â?? ostensibly, to provide them with faster access to the trading feed â?? you know the playing field is tilted. High-speed trading appears to earn about $5 billion a year for Goldman Sachs, the largest operator, and that $5 billion is just scooped out of the U.S. economy â?? without providing any value in return. A Tobin tax, even at a low rate, would yield billions of dollars in revenue to set against the budget deficit. More importantly, it would loosen the grip of the traders over the marketplace we all share. Having banned credit-default swaps and introduced a Tobin tax, you would have solved much of the problem. The truly dangerous and damaging businesses would be eliminated â?? or at least would have shrunk in size â?? because their net profitability would be limited. (You need to do a lot of trades, each one of which would be Tobin taxed, to benefit from high-speed trading.) The rest of the problem could be solved simply by applying stricter capital standards to banks with more than $1 trillion in assets and off-balance-sheet commitments that include derivatives and securitization vehicles. That would currently catch the top four banks â?? plus Goldman Sachs and probably Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). For this to work, these standards would need to be applied internationally on a consolidated basis, and would have to be loophole-free. Setting them up would take time, because the big banks would battle to insert loopholes, as they did in the decade-long process negotiating the Basel II capital standards, which came into effect in January 2008, just in time to fail disastrously. With those three protections, you wouldnâ??t need to break up the â??too big to failâ?? banks. Passing a bill through Congress to do so with say a two-year delay might be helpful, however, just to have a threat to hold over them during the inevitable haggling and lobbying process for these changes.
In fine, America a depasit criza, la fel Germania, Franta, numa' Romanica nu. Mihaela, ai dreptate, numai basescu stie ce spune: nu trebuie sa luam nici un fel de masura anticriza, Wall-Street-ul face jocul! Romanii sunt geniali, numa' americanii, frantuzii, ungurii, grecii, chinezii, rusii bat campii. In tot acest timp, economiile tarilor de sus mult hulite se redreseaza, noi Ne Afundam Bine!